New York Fed Enhances Economic Heterogeneity Indicators with Consumer Spending Data

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York is expanding its Economic Heterogeneity Indicators (EHIs) by integrating detailed consumer spending data into its existing framework. This new dataset, which is segmented by income, education, race and ethnicity, age, and urban status, aims to deliver timely and nuanced insights into the spending behaviors of various demographic groups. Such granularity allows for a more precise understanding of overall consumption trends compared to traditional public surveys.

Sources of Data

The data leveraged for this enhancement comes from Numerator, a consumer analytics firm that operates a diverse panel of 200,000 U.S. consumers. Numerator's methodology involves adjusting the panel to align with Census aggregates across various identifying features. Notably, the measuring of retail sales through Numerator is commendable for its reliability, as evidenced by its close alignment with consumer spending growth reported in the U.S. Census Bureau’s Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MARTS).

This dataset provides detailed spending information categorized by demographics, and is particularly pertinent for real-time tracking of consumption dynamics. As economic conditions evolve, having access to this timelier data grants researchers and policymakers the ability to identify which groups may be increasing their expenditures and which are contracting their spending, putting them in a better position to assess economic health.

Consumer Spending Trends by Education Level

Initial analyses of the new data highlight stark differences in consumer spending based on educational attainment. As shown in recent charts focusing on retail spending growth (excluding automobile purchases), households led by college graduates recorded a nominal spending growth that surpassed that of households without a college degree. By December 2025, college graduates are projected to have increased their retail spending by approximately 2.4 percentage points more than their non-graduate counterparts, with the majority of this divergence occurring primarily by spring 2024.

The implications of this trend are significant. Individuals holding college degrees are expected to show a more resilient consumption pattern even in challenging economic conditions. Meanwhile, spending by households without a college graduate was actually reported to be lower during 2023, evidencing potential economic strain on this demographic. As of late 2025, their real retail spending is projected to be only around 4% higher than January 2023 levels, indicating sluggish recovery or persistently subdued demand.

Inflation-Adjusted Spending Patterns

When factoring in inflation, the disparities become even more pronounced. Real cumulative growth shows that, from 2023 through most of 2024, the retail spending of households without a college graduate remained stagnant or even declined. In contrast, college graduates’ inflation-adjusted spending, although it stagnated during initial downturns, surged by approximately 6% by December 2025 compared to January 2023. This trend raises crucial questions regarding the long-term impacts of education on economic resilience and the potential for widening economic divides.

K-Shaped Economic Recovery

The observed patterns of consumer spending suggest a K-shaped recovery, where higher-educated individuals recover and spend more effectively, while less-educated counterparts struggle to regain footing. The escalating cost of living and wages that have not kept pace with inflation may disproportionately affect those without higher education credentials, likely leading to sustained disparities in consumption.

As noted by the authors, even amid economic conditions that may appear challenging—particularly for college graduates—these individuals have been able to maintain or even increase their spending relative to their non-graduate peers. This resilience may reflect deeper systemic factors, including job market dynamics and consumer confidence that favor those with higher educational attainment.

Future Insights and Applications

The New York Fed plans to release additional insights derived from this dataset in the future. Researchers will continue to explore the behavioral shifts in consumer spending as a response to varying economic factors, shedding light on essential demographic influences on the economy. Stakeholders, including businesses and policymakers, can leverage this information to address economic policies aimed at reducing inequalities and fostering more inclusive growth across different population sectors.

The integration of Numerator's consumer spending data into the EHIs represents a significant step toward understanding complex economic dynamics. Tracking these trends will not only provide valuable insights into the current state of consumer behavior but also signal potential areas of concern or opportunity for various demographic groups.

Further details and ongoing updates will be shared in subsequent issues of Liberty Street Economics and through the New York Fed’s Economic Heterogeneity Indicators platform, which continues to evolve as a vital resource for economic analysis.